What would happen if an asteroid, the same size as the one speculated to have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs millions of years ago, was on a collision course with the Earth right at this moment? 

You may have heard that this June, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) published the findings of a hypothetical exercise they carried out in which they assessed the preparedness of the Earth against the threat of the collision of a planet-sized asteroid with the Earth. While in reality there is no danger of a substantial asteroid impact in the foreseeable future, the report of the hypothetical exercise lead to the spread of misinformation as many were alarmed by the news headlines of major news companies treating the hypothetical scenario as a genuine warning by NASA of a major asteroid impact.

The fifth Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise, taken place at the John Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, consisted of the detection of an asteroid, large enough to cause substantial regional damage, with a 72% chance of colliding with the Earth on July 12, 2038. With 14 years from detection to collision (14.25, to be exact), would humans be able to formulate a plan of action in time? There were some complications in this situation, such as being unable to determine the size, composition, and long-term trajectory of the asteroid, along with the fact that it was expected to pass behind the Sun, where it would be unobservable for seven months. However, the report published by NASA, summarising the key findings of the exercise, highlighted the fact that there were glaring shortcomings in our ability to prepare for such a situation.

In an event that would undoubtedly have international consequences, global collaboration is critical. NASA’s findings underscore the fact that we are evidently lacking in this aspect, along with the fact that there is limited readiness to swiftly implement crucial space missions, the processes of decision-making are not clear and that there are no defined asteroid-impact disaster management plans. 

This is the first exercise to use data from NASA’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission – the first mission to use technology in space to defend the planet against potential asteroid impacts. NASA is also currently developing the NEO Surveyor (Near-Earth Object Surveyor), which is an infrared space telescope designed to discover potentially dangerous near-Earth objects, such as asteroids, several years before they could become a threat. NEO Surveyor is set to launch in June 2028. Moreover, the DART has confirmed that a ‘kinetic impactor’ would have the ability to change the trajectory of an asteroid, deflecting it from its course towards the Earth, however the development of this would take many years and great amounts of money. 

However, even with all the advanced, sophisticated technologies we have today, they are of no use if we fall short at the most crucial point; working together, as one, for the benefit of humanity. If we are unable to accomplish this, will we really be able to fend off a potential asteroid impact any better than the dinosaurs were able to? While it may seem like an unlikely event, it is not implausible, and we must be willing to put aside our differences and unite in the face of events that can have considerable outcomes for humanity as a whole.

By Manaal Yafiah Ahmed

NDTV News Desk. “There’s a 72% Chance That an Asteroid May Hit Earth on This Exact Day.” NDTV, http://www.ndtv.com/science/nasa-exercise-finds-asteroid-with-72-chance-of-hitting-earth-5950284. Accessed 1 Sept. 2024

TOI Lifestyle Desk. “NASA Warns That a Planet-Sized Asteroid Has a 72% Chance of Impacting Earth.” The Times of India, 24 June 2024, timesofindia.indiatimes.com/etimes/trending/nasa-warns-that-a-planet-sized-asteroid-has-a-72-chance-of-impacting-earth/articleshow/111226572.cms. Accessed 1 Sept. 2024.

ET Online. “NASA Warns of Potential Planet-Sized Asteroid Impact: There’s 72% Chance of Earth Collision on This Date.” The Economic Times, 23 June 2024, economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/science/nasa-warns-of-potential-planet-sized-asteroid-impact-72-chance-of-earth-collision/articleshow/111203268.cms?from=mdr. Accessed 1 Sept. 2024.
Rozzen, Michael. “Fact or Fiction: NASA Warning of Huge Asteroid Strike in 2038?” ABC 10 News San Diego KGTV, 9 July 2024, http://www.10news.com/news/fact-or-fiction/fact-or-fiction-nasa-warning-of-huge-asteroid-strike-in-2038. Accessed 1 Sept. 2024.